Saturday, March 17, 2007

Probability

Probability is a strange thing. One might say that there is a 99.99 % probability of a thing not happening, but still it can happen. So is luck... to the unscientific mind, probability is luck. In this context, I dont know where destiny stands... The most interesting thing in all these is that how one percieves probability reflects his psychological state... Lets return to our 99.9% example. If for someone the probability that 99.9% something happening is favourable, still he can choose to be happy or unhappy. For, if he thinks the odds are pretty high that the event will happen(strategy a), he will be happy. If he thinks 0.01% probability doesn't rule out failure (strategy b), then he is unhappy. So then comes the issue of flexibility. If you are flexible, choosing either strategy a or b depending on the situation, then u will be either happy or sad all the time. If you are rigid, choosing one strategy always, your mood is reflected by your luck (?!).
Lets take the case of a rigid person. Wat determines his happiness? He will have no control over it. Extending the argument further, no one has control over life. So then one is prompted to think that this philosophy is fatalistic. I think early people realised the deep depression everyone will get into if they realise this truth. Hence they deviced god, hence karma, hence judgement day. Just to infuse some purpose into the chaos ruling our lives.

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